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Availability and variability of surface-water resources in Taos County, New Mexico: An assessment for regional planning


by Peggy Johnson, New Mexico Bureau of Mines and Mineral Resources, Socorro, NM 87801

Abstract

Surface-water withdrawals supply over 93% of Taos County water requirements, and an accurate inventory of this important resource is a crucial first step in developing a regional water plan. Summary statistics of existing streamflow data for the Taos region and simple time-trend analysis are used to define the average annual surface-water supply, to describe its geographic and temporal variation, and to predict its future variability. The surface-water system is described and inventoried by drainage basin. Historic streamflow data from all gage stations in Taos County, and adjacent localities in Colorado and Rio Arriba County, with more than 10 yrs of record are compiled through the end of water year (September) 1994. The discharge data are evaluated for standard statistical parameters, including mean, median, minimum, maximum, and 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Estimates of surface-water yields for "average," "wet," and "dry" years are developed separately by reach of stream, by drainage basin, and for Taos County based on median, P75, and P25 discharges. An estimated 238,000 acre-ft of surface water originates from the major basins each year. Total surface discharge for the county is expected to vary from about 189,000 acre-ft in a dry year to as much as 340,000 acre-ft in a typical wet year. The largest stream discharges are during the peak snow-melt months of May and June. The combined spring and summer periods (April through October), which correspond to the irrigation season, contribute from 70% to 90% of annual stream discharges. In most years surface-water supply is sufficient to meet the agricultural demand throughout the irrigation season. Estimates of minimum annual baseflow, varying from 1% to 37% of annual discharge, are derived from minimum monthly discharges during the low-flow winter months of December through February. Long-term, decadal-scale variability of streamflow is evaluated using 80 yrs of stream discharge data from the Rio Grande station at Embudo. Time-trend analysis of these historic data indicates that long intervals of severe dry conditions can persist for up to 30 yrs, wherein annual stream discharge may remain at 64% of the predicted average.

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