Circular 166—Estimates of New Mexico's future oil production including reserves of the 50 largest pools

By R. W. Foster, A. L. Gutjahr, and G. H. Warner, 1978, 56 pp., 8 tables, 58 figs., appendix.

Projects New Mexico's future oil production based on rate of decline in average daily production during 1975–76; projections are made for the entire state, for the northwest and southeast producing areas, and for the 50 largest oil pools. This report consists of two parts: (1) an estimate of future oil production for New Mexico, including estimates for the northwest and southeast areas, and (2) and analysis of reserves of the 50 largest oil pools in New Mexico. Graphs showing production and estimated reserves for these 50 pools are included in the appendix. Production estimates and data are limited to crude oil; condensate is not included.

Using a multiple-regression computer program, projections were made of future oil production for the state and for the northwest and southeast producing areas. Projections were based on the rate of decline in average daily production during the years 1975–1976. The average rate of decline during this period was 3.5% per year overall but increased to a projected yearly rate of over 5% during 1976. Projections of future production indicate that approximately 2 billion barrels of oil will be produced until the year 2026, when the economic limit will be reached. Of this production, 1.9 billion barrels will come from the northwest area. Similar projections were made for the 50 largest oil pools based on the amount of oil produced in 1975. At current rates of decline these pools contain an estimated 550 million barrels of recoverable oil.